Scenario-based planning of the effect of changes in the factors affecting the value of the steel market using the system dynamics approach in Chadormalu Mining and Industrial Company
Subject Areas :
morteza ghasemi
1
,
Mohammad Zarei Mahmoudabadi
2
,
Morteza Nabi-Meybodi
3
1 - Department of Industrial Management, Meybod University, Meybod, Iran.
2 - Associate Professor, Department of Industrial Management, Meybod University, Meybod, Iran
3 - Assistant Professor, Department of Industrial Management, Meybod University, Meybod, Iran
Keywords: Scenario-based Planning, Market Value, System Dynamics, Economic Driver, Chadormalu Mining and Industrial Company.,
Abstract :
Objective: Scenario-based planning is a systematic and disciplined method that is used to discover the key driving forces in the context of rapid changes, extraordinary complexities, and multiple uncertainties. Through this method, leaders and managers by looking at unexpected events in the future and deeply understanding their possible consequences, discover and define several different stories or narratives about possible futures. These scenarios are a tool to organize the insights and conclusions of leaders and managers. Considering the importance of planning in the steel industry, considering the unique features of scenario-based planning, and relying on the system dynamics approach, the main issue in the present research is the implementation of scenario-based planning to investigate the effect of changes in effective factors. It is based on the market value of steel using the system dynamics approach. The purpose of this research was scenario-based planning of the effect of changes in the factors affecting the steel market value using the system dynamics approach in Chadormalu Ardakan Mining and Industrial Company of Yazd. Methodology: The current research is based on new foresight, analytical and exploratory methods that were carried out with the help of quantitative and qualitative models. The statistical population of this research was all experts in the market and steel industry in Yazd province, and Vensim DSS software was used to analyze data and information. Conclusion: The results of this research showed that the provision of liquidity needs for investment plans and working capital relied on the internal resources of Chadormalu Ardakan Mining and Industrial Company of Yazd and the capital market, and the variable of the steel market value of Chadormalu Ardakan Yazd Mining and Industrial Company, compared to the simultaneity of the change in The components that explain trust in the steel market shows much more sensitive to changes in knowledge and investment culture. In other words, in order to increase the value of the steel market, if the optimal policy of these variables is taken into consideration, the market value of the steel of Chadormalu Ardakan Mining and Industrial Company of Yazd will change to a greater increase factor. Originality: In this paper, the subject of scenario-based planning of the effect of changes in the factors affecting the value of the steel market has been comprehensively addressed with the approach of system dynamics in Yazd steel industry, which has a few similar researches.