عوامل موثر بر تولید و عرضه مسکن تحت تاثیر نرخ ارز و تحریم
الموضوعات :مهرداد محمودیان زمانه 1 , محمد جعفری 2 , مرتضی عزتی 3
1 - دکتری اقتصاد، دانشگاه لرستان
2 - دانشیار گروه اقتصاد، دانشگاه لرستان، خرم آباد، ایران
3 - پژوهشکده اقتصاد/تربیت مدرس
الکلمات المفتاحية: کلید واژه¬ها: تولید, عرضه مسکن, ارز, تحریم اقتصادی, تورم,
ملخص المقالة :
بخش مسکن در بسیاري از کشورها از جمله ایران یکی از ارکان اصلی اقتصاد است. این بخش نقش مهمی در توسعه اقتصادي، اشتغال و سطح رفاه خانوارها دارد. در پی تحریم¬ها، با محدودیت در بخش خارجی، نرخ ارز تغییر کرده و در پی آن بازار دیگر دارایی¬ها از جمله عرضه مسکن تغییر می¬کنند. ارتباط متقابل میان بازار مسکن، نرخ ارز و تحریم¬های اقتصادی باعث شده، به بررسی عوامل موثر بر تولید و عرضه مسکن تحت تاثیر نرخ ارز و تحریم بپردازیم. روش مورد استفاده برای تجزیه و تحلیل داده¬ها رگرسیون به ظاهر نامرتبط (SUR) است. مدل با داده-های فصلی استانی سال¬های 1390 تا 1400 برآورد شده است. یافته¬های این پژوهش نشان می-دهد تولید ناخالص داخلی، قیمت مسکن و تعداد پروانه¬های ساختمانی صادرشده بر عرضه مسکن اثر مثبت و نرخ ارز و تحریم برعرضه مسکن اثر منفی داشته¬اند. تورم و تحریم، نرخ ارز را افزایش و صادرات، نرخ ارز را کاهش داده است. بر این پایه تحریم هم اثر مستقیم و هم از مسیر نرخ ارز اثر غیر مستقیم بر کاهش عرضه مسکن داشته است.
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